Does the future need us?

January 2, 2012

Moshi Vardi asks, in the current issue of Communications of the ACM.
[Hat tip to Giuseppe Primiero]


New SEP article on voting methods

August 25, 2011

Eric Pacuit has a new article on voting methods up at the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.


Are blogs echo chambers?

August 3, 2009

Eric Gilbert, a 2009 Google Fellow, and his colleagues at Illinois Urbana-Champaign devised an empirical study to test whether blogs isolate readers from dissenting opinions by comparing the ratio of agreeing to disagreeing comments in several top blogs. They write that

As early as 1996, Nicholas Negroponte theorized about The Daily Me, a newspaper perfectly tailored to your individual tastes and preferences. Nothing appears in The Daily Me to challenge the beliefs you already hold. Cass Sunstein, a law professor at the University of Chicago, hypothesized that blogs may in fact be the modern Daily Me. Building on existing work in group psychology, Sustein warns that blogs acting as echo chambers could intensely polarize readers and snuff out dissent. Still, the question remains: are blogs echo chambers?

In their archly titled paper, Blogs are Echo Chambers: Blogs are Echo Chambers, Gilbert et. al. use a study of 75 face-to-face meetings which found that 18.7% of the time speakers actively agreed or disagreed with one another, and 64% of those opinionated moments were devoted to expressing agreement. They then categorized a blog as an echo chamber if more than 64% of the opinionated commentators agree with the blogger.

Their findings? In their hand-coded sample of over 1,000 comments from 33 of the world’s top blogs, agreement outnumbered disagreement by more than 3 to 1.


The Condorcet Jury Theorem when Individual Competence is Low

April 23, 2009

The Condorcet Jury Theorem is often cited in support of the thesis that a group is a better truth-tracker than an individual. In other words, suppose there is a group of N people, presented with two options k_1 and k_2 (one of which is true, while the other is false) and the probability of a single member i (i \in N) to make the right choice as to which option is the true one, is > 0.5. When the previous conditions are met, the Condorcet Jury Theorem shows that the larger the size of the group, the higher is the probability of the group to hit the right option.

Several generalizations and relaxations of assumptions have been given (in particular, on the generalizability of the theorem to k options where k>2, see Christian List and Robert E. Goodin 2001) but I haven’t found much literature on the problem when the individual competence in giving the correct answer is <0.5. In particular I have the following observations:

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